Week 2 College Football Bets

Estimated 3 minute read

Week 1 Performance:

Stake: 5 units

Net Profit/Loss: -1.14 units

ROI: -22.8%

Win Rate: 40%

Despite losing the bet, I’m not unhappy with the value of my North Dakota State +290 pick. My Gators and Hokies picks were a disaster. Let's hope for a better result this week.

All Odds from ESPN Bet

• Tennessee vs NC State over 60.5 (-110) and Tennessee -8 (-110) parlay (+350)

  Tennessee beat the number 8 ranked FCS Chattanooga 69-3 in Week 1, racking up 718 yards of offense in the process. Volunteer Quarterback Nico Iamaleva shined early, throwing for 314 yards and 3 TDs in the first half before giving way to the backups in the second half. NC State struggled against FCS opponent Western Carolina (ranked 19 in FCS Coaches Poll), scoring 21 fourth quarter points to win 38 - 21. NC State put up 521 yards and, as often happens in FCS vs FBS matchups, exerted their superior talent and depth late in the contest. Nonetheless, Tennessee is the superior squad who should win by more than a touchdown. An over of 60.5 implies 6 TDs and 2 FGs or 7 TDs, the equivalent of a 35 - 26 game or more. I’m taking this offer. 

• UTSA +1 (-110) vs Texas State

  As of this publication, both UTSA ML and +1 are at -110 so I’ll take the point right now. Both teams under-performed last week, UTSA dispatched Kennesaw State 28 - 16 while favored by 25, and Texas State defeated FCS Lamar 34 - 27 as a 33 point favorite. I’m not reading too much into either result and honestly I’m baffled by this spread, especially as ESPN’s FPI has the Roadrunners as a heavy favorite. 

• Kansas -5 (-110) vs Illinois 

  This game opened at Kansas -6.5 and has moved to -5. Neither Week 1 result was informative. I’m taking Kansas by both a touchdown or two field goals.

• Nebraska -7.5 (Even) vs Colorado

  I have consistently thought that Vegas has been more realistic than the media and public regarding Colorado. Nebraska was appealing opening -7 is but I’m equally enticed by -7.5 as of now. Week 1 showed me that Colorado’s problems from their 4 - 8 2023 campaign are still there: no running game, struggles in pass protection, a leaky defense, and questionable game management. This game feels more informed by Week 1 than the previous two, giving me even more confidence in this pick. 

• Tulane +10 (-115) vs Kansas State

  I’m tempted to take Tulane +300 to win outright here just for the value. ESPN’s FPI puts the Green Wave’s odds of winning at 45% and the 247 Talent Composite has Tulane ahead of Kansas State. Tulane defeated a Kansas State team that won the Big 12 title on the road in 2022. Here, they catch the Wildcats in New Orleans in what is new coach John Sumrall’s first test with the Green Wave. Tulane easily dispatched FCS SE Louisiana 52 - 0, despite some undisciplined play. Kansas State struggled early against UT Martin before pulling away in the second half for a 41 - 6 win. The Wildcats ran for 283 yards on 9.1 yards per carry, a result that will be hard to replicate against the Green Wave. While Kansas State struggled in the passing game, Tulane freshman quarterback Darian Mensah completed 10/12 passes for 205 yards and 2 TDs. +10 shows too much faith in the Wildcats.