My beefs with 2024 VOR
Estimated 3 minute read
Now, I gotta say I used David’s VOR dataset in my draft last season - I finished second in total points scored and made the playoffs.
That said, I have some issues with some of the outputs.
Overvalued
RB Alvin Kamara - 16 VOR, 46 ADP (+30)
Usually I’m all about identifying draft steals by taking a player ranked ahead of his ADP. Kamara fits this bill here but, in this case, I have to side with the masses. Kamara has never produced a 1,000 yard rushing season and last season scored only 6 touchdowns on 3.9 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per catch, a career low. His receiving output is valuable in PPR scoring but 16th in standard scoring is way too high. Going into his age 29 season I do not see 2nd round value that VOR does here.
WR Mike Williams - 128 VOR, 141 ADP (+13)
Here we’re looking for a receiver who is firmly behind top target WR Garrett Wilson in New York who also faces stiff target competition from RB Breece Hall and TE Tyler Conklin to generate extra value. Driving this assumption is that Williams returns to 2021 form, where he played a full season with 1,146 yard while grabbing 9 TDs. Headwinds facing this proposition are A) Williams was only cleared to play Week 1 yesterday and B) the expectation that Aaron Rodgers has fully recovered from the Achilles injury that sidelined him for nearly all of 2023 and that he suffers no decline at age 40.
WR Jakobi Meyers - 119 VOR, 137 ADP (+18)
I have a rule: avoid good players on bad offenses. Here we’re talking about drafting Meyers, the WR2 on the Raiders with incoming usage competition from TE Brock Bowers and RB Alexander Mattison while cemented behind clear number one wideout Davonte Adams. Plus we’re talking about Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell calling the signals.
Undervalued
RB Chuba Hubbard - 146 VOR, 121 ADP (-25)
It’s no secret at this point that I am a huge Chuba Hubbard fan. I outlined my case for his value here and stand by my assessment. VOR puts Hubbard three slots below backfield mate Jonathon Brooks, who is going way too high with at 90 ADP.
WR Xavier Worthy - 104 VOR, 82 ADP (-22)
I’ve always selectively but aggressively drafted and picked up rookie WRs over the years, including Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jordan Addison, Puka Nucua, and Jalin Hyatt. Scratch that last one the exception proves the rule. Nonetheless Worthy’s unreal speed, Andy’s Reid’s offense, and Patrick Mahomes make Xavier a worthy option come draft day.
WR Keon Coleman - 132 VOR, 106 ADP (-26)
Pretty simple: someone will get yardage on the Bills. We’re talking about Josh Allen, who VOR is calling the 17th ranked player with a 22 ADP, throwing to an appropriately rated Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel, overrated Dalton Kincaid and Coleman? The points come from somewhere.
