7 Fantasy Football Players to Watch at their ADP in 2024
Estimated 7 minute read
“Who is the next Puka Nacua” is a common question fantasy football enthusiasts are asking this offseason that has a very simple answer: no one knows. The player in question would not be drafted in 1% of leagues then finish as a top 5 WR. Below I outline some of my favorite picks based on value. These aren’t the deepest sleepers or top picks, although they can and do make the list based on their value.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans QB
Will Levis’s rookie season wasn’t smooth, throwing only 8 TD passes, with 4 coming in his NFL debut against Atlanta. His second season should prove valuable for fantasy owners looking for a high upside QB in later rounds. Levis is currently QB27 in ESPN PPR formats, behind Bryce Young, who struggled immensely in his first season, and incredibly Tom Brady, who retired after the 2022 season. Levis’s outlook with the Titans has dramatically improved since his rookie season, with the Titans adding Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to DeAndre Hopkins to upgrade a receiving group that was Hopkins and friends in 2023. The Titans will increase Levis’s volume with the new coaching staff and the departure of running back Derrick Henry. The Titans may not become a top 5 passing team like the Bengals but the assurance of increased volume improves Levis’s fantasy outlook. Tennessee’s offensive line was upgraded with the additions of excellent pass blocker Lloyd Cushenberry at center and top rookie tackle JC Latham. Levis is a clear sleeper at his current ADP with improvements to volume, pass catchers, and offensive line.
2024 Fantasy Outlook:
High upside sleeper, worth a late-round pick or QB2 in super flex leagues with breakout potiental in best-ball
2. Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers RB
It’s always a risk drafting players from an offense that is expected to go through growing pains, depending on your faith in Carolina’s upgrades to both the personnel and coaching staff. Adding Jonathan Brooks in the draft would seem to signal a reduced role for Hubbard. Brooks is coming off a late season ACL tear in 2023, and his recovery is reportedly slower than expected. Reasons to be wary of Brooks’s return to action include being physically able to perform after his return, receiving fantasy relevant volume as he works back from injury, and effectiveness in Carolina’s offense. Hubbard is currently drafting at RB51 on ESPN. Most of the focus of Carolina’s hire of Dave Canales has been centered on his impact on the development of quarterback Bryce Young, not the Panther's run game. Canales has had a history of coaching fantasy relevant running backs, including Marshawn Lynch and Raschaad White.
2024 Fantasy Outlook:
Flex consideration, with upside depending on Brooks’ health
3. Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans RB
The departure of Derrick Henry and the arrival of Tony Pollard signals a changing of the guard in Nashville and an increased role for second year running back Tyjae Spears. Spears holds high upside in PPR formats, where he’s currently drafting at RB31, behind Jonathan Brooks who is returning from an ACL tear and will miss four weeks to begin the season. With an anticipated increase in passing volume, Spears looks to build on his totals from his rookie season where he caught 52 of 67 targets, both of which ranked ninth among all RBs in 2023. Spears was the most effective receiver on passes caught behind the line of scrimmage in terms of forcing missed tackles after the catch per PFF and posted an elite Elusive rating, ranking ninth in the NFL, ahead of RB3 Bijan Robinson and RB2 Breece Hall. An increased role in both the run and pass games give low end RB2 upside.
2024 Fantasy Outlook:
High-use RB/Flex option in PPR leagues, especially if he becomes the primary back
4. Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills WR
For the Buffalo Bills out goes Stephon Diggs and Gabe Davis, in comes Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. The Bills have collected slot receivers this offseason with no true number one. Khalil Shakir is currently going WR58 at ESPN. Shakir has posted excellent efficiency with Josh Allen, catching 86.7% percent of his targets for an average of 15.7 yards per catch. The departure of Diggs and Davis will likely trade some efficiency for increased volume as the Bills navigate their slot receiver glut. Shakir’s efficiency warrants a pick in either PPR or non PPR formats.
2024 Fantasy Outlook:
Late-round sleeper with potential WR3/Flex upside, especially in PPR
5. Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars WR
Drafting rookie WRs is always a risky proposition in fantasy football. The situation and team dynamic is very important and Brian Thomas Jr. in Jacksonville is a potentially great fit at WR50. The Jaguars have indicated that they will be throwing the ball downfield more this year and swapped Calvin Ridley for Gabe Davis in the offseason in free agency. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram will continue to work shorter patterns while Brian Thomas will line up outside, where he spent most of his time at LSU in 2023. He caught 17 touchdowns for LSU in 2023, 3 more than teammate Malik Nabers, the 6th overall pick in 2024. Thomas’s speed, coupled with quarterback Trevor Lawerence’s ability and commitment to throwing deep this season make Thomas a viable fantasy pick. Thomas is not a refined route runner, and if is unable to separate as a rookie, could end up with a reduced role.
2024 Fantasy Outlook:
High-risk, high-reward WR3/Flex with deep league appeal, especially in best-ball formats with less value in PPR leagues
6. Javon Baker, New England Patriots WR
Javon Baker, rookie WR out of UCF, comes with both the risk of rookie WR and good player on a bad offense. That said, these risk factors also make him an intriguing option at WR 113. Baker is a deep sleeper, and likely a stash at the beginning of the season. His upside comes from a productive overall game that has no glaring weaknesses. The Patriots don’t have an impressive set of receivers and both Ja’Lynn Polk and Baker look poised for playing time as rookies. The nod goes to Baker here as reports out of the Patriots’ offseason workouts are glowing for Baker. Baker may be looking at an early chance to see the field for New England.
2024 Fantasy Outlook:
Deep sleeper, worth a late-round stash in deeper leagues, especially in dynasty or best-ball formats, with potential to emerge later in the season
7. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys QB
Dak Prescott was a strong contender for Fantasy MVP in 2023 to pair with his 2nd place finish in NFL MVP voting. Dak Prescott is at QB8 in ESPN ADP right now, behind Anthony Richardson. It’s easy to see why fantasy players would snap up AR15 - his upside in the quarterback run game is elite. Prescott is a top QB option in 2024 for both his track record and a proven ability to pound bad teams, a consistent criticism by the media and fans. Prescott’s schedule down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs is favorable. Through weeks 12 to 17 the Cowboys face the Commanders, Giants, Bengals, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. Prescott throws to CeeDee Lamb, widely considered a top 5 fantasy option this year, and Jake Ferguson, a top 10 tight end.
2024 Fantasy Outlook:
QB1 with top-5 potential in all formats
