Kyle’s Midseason Prediction Check In
Estimated 5 minute read
Before the season started, I wrote down a few things that I was sure would happen. Well. Maybe I was off the mark. Read on.
Prediction: Coach Prime and company say goodbye to Colorado
Status: On track
Despite Colorado’s impressive 6-2 record, I’m still of the belief that the Sanders family will depart Boulder before next season. While it’s possible that the staff will bring in dozens of transfers for the third straight season, the lack of high school recruiting is not a proven method of program building. As I outlined in the preseason, the top high school recruits from Sanders’s first season have mostly left the team. Colorado’s current ranks 79th in the nation according to 247 Sports, and, more concerning, 16th in the Big 12. The only Power 4 schools below Colorado are Vanderbilt and Purdue. They both have even fewer commitments than Colorado. While Colorado’s 10 member class is hurting their rating, it’s a trend among Coach Prime’s first three seasons. Even in the age of unlimited transfers, high school recruiting is still at the base of consistently elite programs. Clemson, which has only taken one transfer in the past two cycles, is 6-1 and 5th in the 247 Sports Team Talent Composite. Florida State, 13-1 last season, tried to plug some key holes in their roster through the Transfer Portal. 5 of 17 transfer FSU brought in were from Alabama’s roster. Nick Saban last month made the comment that guys are in the portal for a reason.
I am confident that the combination of lagging recruiting and the exhaustion of Shilo and Shadeur’s eligibility will prompt Prime to depart Colorado.
Prediction: Billy Napier will be fired before the Florida State game
Status: Mostly on track
So Florida actually has a winning record, sitting at 4-3 and good wins (in terms of Billy’s job security) over both UCF and Kentucky, although the two are a combined 2-10 against P4 competition. And the vibes are much better in Gainesville than they were. The biggest issues for Napier are the Tennessee game and lagging recruiting. The Gators played the Volunteers tough, taking the 8th ranked team into overtime. The problem is not that they lost, it’s how they lost.
During the game:
The Gators lost a fumble on the 1 yard lineAn illegal substitution penalty with the clock running ended the first half, costing the Gators a chance to kick a field goal
Napier changed his mind on a 2-point conversion attempt that likely would have given them a win, instead sending the game into overtime
Then, in overtime, the drive summary for Florida read:
Incomplete Pass
False Start
Pass for loss of 5
6 yard run on 3rd and 20
Missed field goal
“The tale of the tape is our missed opportunities in the first half”
“We had many opportunities to score points”
These are not quotes from a coach with job security.
Even worse for Napier is the subpar recruiting. Recruiting is the name of the game in college football, and Florida is falling behind. 247Sports rates Florida’s 2025 class 51st in the nation - and 15th in the SEC. When I wrote about the Gators’s lagging recruiting in the preseason, they were 30th in the nation and 12th in the SEC. Florida’s class is currently ranked behind every single FBS team on their schedule this season, including UCF, Kentucky, and Mississippi State. Florida doesn’t aspire to compete with these schools. 7 of the top 8 classes in the nation are SEC schools. Napier is not getting it done.
If you can’t recruit and you can’t win with the talent you have, which is higher rated than what you’re bringing in, you’re not long for the SEC. At this point, with Florida State in such a tailspin, firing Napier prior to the game is probably Florida’s best option. Letting him win a rivalry game (not even a sure thing) would be like smearing foundation on a gator.
Prediction: Liberty will finish 13-0, win Conference USA and finish unranked in the final College Football Playoff rankings in the same season
Status: 100% busted
Welp. Liberty has looked unimpressive and frankly mediocre all season and in the past two weeks the bottom dropped out from under the Flames. On October 23rd, Liberty lost 27-24 at Kennesaw State, which was Kennesaw State’s first ever win as an FBS school. Liberty was already not considered a remote contender for a CFP bid and their loss to the Owls ended those hopes for certain. Then, earlier this week, Liberty lost 31-21 at home to Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks won on the strength of 364 rushing yards. ESPN Bet now gives Liberty the third best odds to win Conference USA at +600 - well behind Jacksonville State (+165) and Western Kentucky (+110).
Prediction: Oregon finishes the regular season 12-0, including a win over Ohio State, but loses to Ohio State in a Big 10 Championship game rematch. Questions around Dan Lanning’s ability to win big games will intensify, even though Oregon will win a playoff game as the 6 seed
Status: Still could happen
Oregon pulled out a 32-31 win over Ohio State last weekend, with a timely penalty by Oregon giving the Ducks a boost in the final minute. It was Ryan Day and his senior quarterback Will Howard making several key errors down the stretch. Oregon has a clean track to a first round bye as Big Ten champion, and are the favorites to win the conference at +105, with Ohio State at +165 at ESPN Bet. Dan Lanning’s big game reputation is trending up after his successful surprise onside kick and intentional penalty take against Ohio State.
Ohio State still absolutely controls their own destiny to win the Big Ten and College Football Playoff but is not the juggernaut expected. They did, as I expected, lose to Oregon. However, the results all season have been less than overwhelming and the Buckeyes now enter a tough stretch of the schedule. Ohio State goes to Happy Valley to face 7-0 Penn State this weekend, although the Nittany Lions may be playing without quarterback Drew Allar. On November 23rd, the Buckeyes welcome surprise 8-0 Indiana to the Horseshoe. The Hoosiers are also dealing with an injured starting quarterback, although coach Curt Cignetti expects Kurtis Rourke back as early as this weekend. Then of course they have to beat Michigan and win the Big Ten title game. All doable but figuring to be much harder than expected.
Prediction: Jalen Milroe will win the Heisman Trophy and Ohio State will win the National Championship
Status: On Life Support
It’s still theoretically possible: Milroe can win the Heisman. Alabama’s losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee knocked some serious luster off the quarterback’s Heisman case. The Alabama quarterback’s odds of winning the Heisman now sit at ninth at ESPN Bet, behind players with a much cleaner case for the award.
Ohio State still can win the CFP, although their path to a conference title and first round bye is much murkier than expected, as outlined above.
Updated picks:
Heisman Trophy Winner: Ashton Jeanty
National Champion: Oregon
ACC Champion: Clemson
Big 12 Champion: BYU
Big Ten Champion: Oregon
SEC Champion: Georgia
AAC Champion: Tulane
Conference USA Champion: Western Kentucky
MAC Champion: Miami (OH)
Mountain West Champion: Boise State
Sun Belt Champion: Louisiana
Updates on other predictions:
Texas State wins Sun Belt: Not going to happen
Lincoln Riley takes an offensive coordinator job in the NFL: Lock it in
AAC coaches Jeff Traylor, Alex Golesh and Ryan Silverfield all take P4 jobs: Not going to happen
