2024 Preseason College Football Bets
Estimated 7 minute read
Before every season, sportsbooks offer an array of props on items like how teams will perform or who will win conference or the national championship. These are 15 of my favorite season outlook props. These aren’t predictions, and are my perceptions of each prop’s value lookin at the odds offered and likelihood of occurrence. Here I’m also picking all five my favorite G5 conference winners props.
All odds from Hard Rock Bet
University of South Florida Bulls over 7.5 regular season wins +125
South Florida took a giant leap under first year head coach Alex Golesh last season, winning 7 games while still being absolutely awful on defense. The schedule presents challenges, facing Alabama and Miami out of conference and Memphis and Tulane in conference, but 8 wins is within reach.
Florida Gators under 4.5 regular season wins +125
I only see one easy win on Florida’s schedule: FCS Samford. As outlined here, I believe the Gators are in for a calamitous year.
USC Trojans over 5.5 conference wins +100
I fully expect USC to struggle and ultimately for coach Lincoln Riley to leave for the NFL either during or after the season. The Trojans don’t play preseason favorites Ohio State or Oregon in conference. USC’s schedule is more daunting out of conference, facing LSU and Notre Dame, meaning that the Trojans can finish 7-5 and go over 5.5 wins in conference.
UCF Knights over 7.5 regular season wins -130
The Gus Bus seems to be back on the road. The Knights’ offense looks downright menacing in an absolutely wide open Big 12. UCF finished 6-7 last season but lost 3 of their 7 games by a combined 4 points. Close losses are ripe for flipping season to season and plucking QB KJ Jefferson out of the portal will be an upgrade over the Timmy McClain/John Rhys Plumlee committee UCF used in 2023. The odds aren’t great but I like the likelihood of winning this prop.
West Virginia Mountaineers over 6.5 regular season wins -130
I see a clear path to 8 wins for the Mountaineers this season in a wide open Big 12. West Virginia turned a lot of heads in 2023 after being picked to finish at the bottom of the conference but ripping off a 9 win campaign. This is a safe pick for me at -130.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights over 6.5 regular season wins +100
Head coach Greg Schiano is doing his best Kirk Ferentz impersonation in his second stint at Rutgers, finishing 29th in points against and 98th in points for in the nation. If Rutgers is simply below average on offense, they have an outside shot at 9 wins. Fortunately for the Scarlet Knights they’re returning star running back Kyle Monangai, who rushed for 1,262 yards and 8 touchdowns last season. At even odds I can’t pass this up.
Iowa Hawkeyes over 8.5 regular season wins +135
Speaking of Iowa, if the Hawkeyes can be below average on offense, 9 wins seems like a given after winning 10 games with the 2nd fewest points scored per game in the country in 2023, right? +135 is a steal for me.
Louisville Cardinals over 8.5 regular season wins +115
Louisville surged to a 10 win regular season in 2023 and has a path to 10 again, exceeding 9 at +115. I expect the Cardinals to be in the race for the ACC title.
Oregon Ducks undefeated regular season +300
As outlined here, I am putting a lot of faith in Oregon to run the regular season table. +300 seems fair to me.
Tennessee Volunteers reach the playoffs +180
Give Josh Heupel 5 starting caliber WRs in a conference likely to send 4 teams to the playoff at +180, yes please.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers win Conference USA +450
If Liberty doesn’t win Conference USA, it’s hard to imagine anyone except the Hilltoppers dethroning the Flames. This gives good value at +450.
Tulane University Green Wave to win AAC +300
Tulane has won 23 games over the past two season, defeating USC, Kansas State, UTSA, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. In 2022, Tulane defeated six P4 or now P4 schools. The Green Wave face a difficult non conference schedule, welcoming Kansas State, traveling to Norman to face Oklahoma and a tricky game on the road against Louisiana. In conference, Tulane catches breaks, missing UTSA and playing Memphis at home. ESPN’s FPI actually has Tulane favored in all 8 of their AAC games. The value is there at +300, and I’m taking the Wave.
Fresno State Bulldogs win Mountain West +475
Like USC, the Bulldogs face their stiffest challenge outside of conference play, visiting the Big House, which fortunately has no impact on their ability to win the Mountain West. ESPN’s FPI has Frenso as favorites in all of their conference games. +475 for a team favored in every conference game is a bargain.
Toledo Rockets win MAC +275
The MAC is a two team race for me, between Toledo and Miami (OH). I really want to like the Redhawks but their offense is so putrid. With Toledo at +275 and Miami (OH) at +250, maybe I’ll hedge on both.
Texas State Bobcats win Sun Belt +400
At +400, this seems like a longshot, but I have faith in GJ Kinne. Texas State posted their best season as an FBS program in Kinne’s first season, flipping a roster by aggressively dipping into the portal. Kinne upgraded the offense that finished 12th in the nation in points in 2023 by retaining WR Joey Hobert and bringing in QB Jordan McCloud from fellow Sun Belt school James Madison. Texas State has had the top transfer portal class during the 2023 and 2024 cycles. I absolutely love Texas State at +400.
